Saturday, February 29, 2020

Humanitarian Series

Humanitarian Series
By
James T. Bogden, PMP

The purpose of this series is to present viable solutions to real-world challenges as well as discuss natural systems. There may also be comparisons between natural and synthetic or man-made systems. The prevailing view in these posts is humans have dominion over creation and nature is designed then deliberately placed to support humans. There is a balanced approach to life.

Societies around the planet have been developing complex economies and cultural cooperations. There are some societies that have not advanced due to isolation, cultural beliefs, or poor leadership. These posts propose a model that may be adapted to each instance to improve basic needs and begin building a modern economy for integration into the complex global economy.



Economic systems are diverse. The natural economic system is free-market capitalism when all human-imposed controls are removed. These posts discuss the different systems and compare their value for humanity.







Food production and green space are important aspects of human interaction with the environment around them. Urban gardening will become more important as cities increase in population.


Future posts will continue to appear here sporadically.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Humanitarian Projects Built from a Model Part 1


Comment: This is a post series expressing my humanitarian side. A friend of mine out of Lake Forest, CA does mission work through his church traveling to China, Rwanda, and Uganda. Recently, he indicated that the projects he had been doing were not progressing as they should and that many of the efforts really did not serve the people well.  He attributed the problem to poor leadership and strategies with little or no focus.  For example, fundraisers several times a year are more of a social experience in LA, CA than genuinely doing good for the intended people offshore. This got me to thinking. During my military service, I was trained in civil affairs and performed many humanitarian missions of various sorts that ranged from noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs) to civil affairs missions such as medical operations (MEDOPS) and various reconstruction projects. Often the missions were planned from a standard or template. I thought that the same ideas could serve other efforts by having a purposeful goal and elements efforts to get there.

Humanitarian Projects Built from a Model

Many people and organizations attempt to do good around the world. The US Navy's tagline is a  force for good.  Many people and organizations purchase then gift equipment and facilities to help those less fortunate. The problem is that a short time later the facilities and equipment fall into disrepair or become inoperable due to a lack of a sustainable infrastructure.  Thus, the act of kindness becomes ineffective at resolving the issues it was gifted to overcome and may become a greater burden for the recipient. The challenge is to develop a way to overcome these issues and provide sustainable gifts to these nations and people who require broad-based support. After all, Stephen Covey tells us to teach them to fish and feed them for life.

Making a Brief Case

A considerable portion of the world's population lives in temperate regions without adequate food and potable water. These societies are often isolated from regional and global communities. Efforts to gift supplies and equipment have not produced the results needed for these societies to maintain a sustainable improvement to the quality of life. A new approach is needed.

Many challenges confront the new approach. We will not consider political and social movements that could be counter to these efforts. Some regions have world views that reject aid from people outside their circles or are counter to the values necessary to sustain the new approach. Operating in these regions requires other methods not discussed here. Nonetheless, this is a base model that can be adjusted to local conditions. 

This new approach should create a sustainable system that introduces the society to the regional and global economies with the goal to integrate the society into the broader and complex economy. Underpinnings of the regional and global economies include components like a functional supply chain infrastructure (seaports, airports, and roads), ample fresh water, and energy distribution networks. These societies cannot be connected to the broader system until they begin the trek towards improvements which is the objective of this effort.  The development of a supply chain cannot begin until energy, water, and food resources are adequately addressed on a fundamental level first. Once renewable food, water, and power resources are available then the injection of external economic influences will enable the people to earn increased wages and further transform their quality of life.

The solution begins by scoping the issue and setting objectives. In this case, the people are in need of the basics; food, water, and power. This further breaks down to fertile and irrigated soil, fresh and potable water, as well as renewable energy. The objective is to design solutions that are low tech, easily sustainable, and ecologically friendly. The success of this endeavor centers on a basic economy to sustain the solution. The design should include natural filtration and purification methods as well as make use of natural sources of nutrients and energy.

This vision is to develop a local economy poised to introduce the local society to regional and global economies by building the sustainable groundwork for the most basic needs of the community. This is a major undertaking often too large for a single organization or government. Thus, armed with this vision a coalition should be built yielding various aspects of the vision to participants of the project.

The Sustainable Groundwork

Many solutions for the base problems exist with some performing better than others. As part of the project planning performance metrics need to be determined. I have completed some basic research into this matter and the following ideas may have some merit as they have been put to successful use around the world. 

Natural Water Filtration and Potable Water

Natural water filtration uses earthen filtration and gravity. Natural filtration mechanisms vary by topography and generally involve estuaries (wetlands) and riparian (streamside forest) systems. Within these systems soil composition, vegetation, animals, and micro-organisms play very important roles in purification. Engineering low tech natural purification systems can reflect the local ecosystems or an enhanced system can be introduced. Essentially, a three-stage system of gravity-fed lakes and earthen berms can purify large quantities of freshwater. The source of water can be natural sources such as springs, wells, storm runoff, and general wastewater from the community, etc...  The system flows from an estuary lake through an earthen berm composed of aggregates of various sizes (rock, gravel, sand, and clay) into an intermediate lake filled with low oxygen fish.  The intermediate lake is gravity fed into a lower lake through a second earthen berm also composed on various aggregates. Anaerobic microbial and insect  lifeforms also reside in the berms as well as trees line the lakes assisting in the purification process. The middle and lower lakes could be split into upper and lower halves with rapids or waterfalls providing aeration of the water which is another critical aspect of purification.

The water arrives in the lower lake as purified freshwater but remains non-potable. The water can be used directly in irrigation and watering of animals. In order to achieve potable water an additional level of purification is necessary to remove pathogens and other contaminants. There are natural methods of achieving this objective that usually involves ultraviolet light and methods to raise the water to a pH of about 8.3. Lime, soda ash, and sodium hydroxide usually raise the pH balance.  Solar concentrators can focus the sun's energy to a focal line where a pipe containing the fresh purified water is passed through. The focused solar energy flashes the water to steam which is evacuated then condensed killing pathogens and bacteria while leaving heavier sediments behind. The steam evacuation and freshwater draw can be created using the falling water or windmills that drives blowers and pumps. Venturi's expand the steam causing the cooling necessary for condensation in a plenum chamber. The potable water is then siphon fed into a water tower as currently performed in the US.
Figure 1: Earthen Filtration, gravity fed lakes purify water.
The gravity fed lake system is in current use in San Diego, CA and smaller systems are in Florida. The fresh water is fed into the Pacific Ocean after the detention cycle. However, San Diego is undertaking a project to recycle the water's use by placing the fresh water into a reservior for the detention cycle. While the ideal topography is sloping, the system can be built on mesas, plains, and other level topographies but would require earth moving endeavors stair stepping the detention lakes.  

Fertile Soil
Figure 2:  Composting System

Many areas of the world are inhospitable with the ecology unfit to sustain crops, livestock, or in general human life. In fact, much of the land is undergoing desertification. An operational view of land's ability to sustain human life considers the carrying capacity and capability of the land. While a particular stretch of land may have a low carrying capacity, natural methods are available to improve the lands fertility and carrying capacity. Among these methods is composting waste materials including human waste, Figure 2. This is a low tech process does not require extensive maintenance. This improves sanitary conditions and makes use of organic waste matter in useful ways.  Tilling composted waste into the soil creates grasslands for grazing animals that begins a cycle of renewal and economic expansion. The compost may also be used with crops for human consumption. When using the waste for this purpose sustained temperatures must be held for several weeks in order to kill pathogens in the waste.  There is a substantial body of works that promotes the uses of compost.  Composting Toilet Systems.  A complementary approach is the use of Holistic Management and Planned Grazing.  In this approach, land is recycled preventing desertification. This approach also provides livestock and crop food sources for the local populations. 

Renewable Energy

The vision is to provide the base energy required, the minimum necessary, to support the environmental systems emplaced.  This includes pumps, motors, and heat for composting and purification.  The sun, waterfalls / rapids, and wind are sources of potential energy to support the base energy requirements. Thus, a system of solar panels and wind or water-driven turbines could supply the requisite power to move water around the purification system. Solar concentrators, Image 1, would focus solar energy to sustain heat levels necessary for composting and purification.  The energy production using these methods most likely would exceed the amount necessary for the system to function. The excess energy may be sufficient to provide security lighting during the evening or power cooling fans as additional support to the system.


Image 1: The Solar Concentrator is used to flash water to steam.
Energy is the underpinning of an economy. Without energy logistics and tools that make the economy move would become inanimate. The need for energy to power the full economic engine would be an expanded effort. This requires substantial energy resources. If the society simply does not have access to these resources locally then the connection to the regional and global community becomes more important. For example, Japan imports nearly it's entire economy as raw materials including energy then performs work in order to export the finished goods. Engineering a energy resource for the entire community is a separate effort than this post's intent to present a solution to stabilize the local community.

Building an Economy to Sustain the System

Water purification, energy production, composting systems, and holistic management require services of various sorts. For example, the compost needs to be collected and redistributed. The solar concentrators and condensation system may require cleaning and replacement of the pipes. There is a need to monitor and adjust the natural filtration system with fish and other filtration elements. These are activities that should become part of a local economy.  By inclusion in a larger regional or global economy, resources ordinarily not available become available as the local economy contributes to the larger system.

Consider one cycle, a businessman pays a nominal rate to residents for collecting their compost. Then sells at a higher rate the compost to landowners who in turn use it to create grasslands and raise livestock. The landowner also pays for the irrigation services that facilitate the grasslands for the livestock.  The landowner then sells the livestock in the market as food. The residents who pay and consume the food, producing the waste for composting. The nominal fee they receive for the compost contributes towards the purchase of more food.  These residents also perform other work in which they receive pay from perhaps a manufacturing plant or some other inject from the complex economy originating from the regional or global economy. Other businesses emerge such as fish farms that not only stock the lakes but sell their overstock to the local community as food. The local community provides financial support to the natural purification system by buying the water they consume and paying for fishing rights from the lower lake.  Local people are hired and trained to maintain the system. Thus, a local economy boosted by linkage to a regional or global economy can raise up their lives.

In the end, a basic system could be created to support improvements in food production, potable water, and sanitary conditions that contribute towards an basic economy. This jump-starts an economy and begins the movement towards more advanced systems for further improvements to the quality of life. More importantly, the people take ownership of their lives.

These concepts are in successful use around the world. However, they have not been organized into a succinct model or plan. Moreover, the end state of a society meaningfully poised for injection into a regional or global economy has not been advanced in a meaningful way. 

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Humanitarian Projects Built from a Model Part 2


Commentary: This is a continuation of the earlier Part 1 which focused on an overarching model that drew upon green initiatives to form a model that initiated a movement towards the generation of natural resources and recovery of the lands desolated or desertified. Part 2 is to discuss project leadership, implementation, and economic carrying capacities as well as capabilities. 

Humanitarian Projects built from a Standard Model Part II
By
JT Bogden, PMP

The model presented in Part 1 results in a mega-project. A formal definition of mega-projects does not exist among scholars but the United States government defines mega-projects as major infrastructure projects exceeding $500US million or projects that attract a high level of public or political attention due to impacts on the community, environment, or budgets (Li, Yanfei, and Chaosheng, 2009). Mega-projects are managed differently than the classic PMI project. The difference stems from the scope and complexity of the project as well as a fair amount of political injects are found in mega-projects that are not ordinarily found in smaller projects. Mega-projects require early and broader planning and programs emplaced that detail relationships and policies. Often supply chain design requires the leveling of the playing field in order to prevent dominant actors from controlling the project and allow for problem resolution among competitive supply chain actors. The mega-projects are componentized into smaller more manageable elemental projects. Project schedules are subject to cash flows since funding comes in cycles based on bonds and governmental block allocations (Operating Target Funds) rather than the PMI method of Earn Value Management, EVM, and sunk labor cost. Although, EVM may be applied in the elemental projects. Some elemental projects may already exist or otherwise meld into the overarching model resulting in adaptation of the model to each circumstance. The post Project Complexity Perplexes Procurement discusses the framework necessary to resolve many of the project challenges.

Economic Carrying Capacities and Capabilities of the Land

Carrying capacity is defined as the volumetric ability of a specified plot of land to support an ecological balance of life as determined by food and water requirements. The measure is often expressed as the maximum number of creatures that an area of land can support.  Capability is the ability to produce food and water on the land based on; topography, soil composition, and climate. For example, steep and roughed topographies may produce a lot of water runoff and land for grazing animals. Whereas, plains may puddle water and produce crops.  Thus, the capabilities to produce food and water vary. Unless humans intervene and modify or enhance the land's capabilities the carrying capacity is limited.

Basic methods of modifying and enhancing the land's capability include natural processes that improve soil fertility, creation of irrigation as well as water resources. Advanced methods of modifying and enhancing the capabilities include hydroponics, fish farming towers, and introducing synthetics to retain water or increase fertility.  The primary objective of this project and associated projects is to increase the carrying capacity and improve the capability of the land. This is achieved by improving the quality of soil fertility and freshwater using more natural and synthetic approaches. By increasing the capability of the land, in a capital economy of private land ownership, the wealth extraction increases significantly.  In socialized economies, the land is considered dead capital and at an estimated $9.3 trillion globally (Coffman, 2010, p. 59.).  The potential to increase individual wealth and improve lives is considerable.

Energy extraction via wind, solar, and hydroelectric is necessary to artificially stimulate the natural systems where they would otherwise marginally perform. Energy injection begins the cycle of improving the capabilities and capacity of the land. Overall, the model is a supervised process that adds economic value and can be throttled or managed. As the land's carrying capacity and capabilities increase, economic value can be extracted which in turn increases the quality of life.&

Most projects are small or very small. Project leadership under these conditions amounts to personality management which can be a challenge in its own rite. Project leadership on mega-projects involves a broader effort establishing programmatic methods of handling the political issues, supply chain innovation, quality standards, and conflict resolution procedures at a minimum. Often on mega-projects, there are many civil and contractual issues that need to be addressed and mitigated ahead of time rather than litigated after the fact. Program management is the approach commonly used to gain control of an operation.
Figure 1:  The Mega Project

PMI defines program management as a project of projects which is a myopic and inaccurate description of program management as most operations managers would view the practice. A more accurate description of program management in the operations management realm is to reverse the terms calling the effort a management program. Management programs organize aspects of an operation into policies, responsibilities, and duties that are written into a document. Often management programs detail procedures, training requirements or qualifications, and provide forms or access to systems. A strong leader will foresee, organize, and communicate the management programs to all project actors early in the process. Another aspect of management programs is that they often have performance metrics and in many cases are funded using a variety of methods. These methods include block funding, zero-based budgeting, and a series of grants and recoupments throughout the tax cycle.  Management of the funding, including payment cycles, claims processes, and other financials requires controls to prevent over-spending and minimize fraud.

Comment: A scrupulous vendor I had to deal with once. This vendor learned to leverage poor processes and lack of communication in the organization for his benefit by double shipping items. One item would be sent to the loading docks and the other item would be shipped to the front desk. Once signed, the organization owned the item. He then plays stupid but insisted on payment. For my project, I  set up a process in which I signed for all inbounds and questioned items mixed in with my orders effectively stopping the double shipments. However, that vendor attempted to get back and reported the organization for software licensing violations after observing several installs of software application that we were recently looking to purchase in volume. I received a letter from an attorney firm essentially seeking to settle for the licensing violations under the threat of further legal action. I had my ducks-in-a-row and responded with an enclosure from a software vendor that we were evaluating the software in question with the vendor's permission.  I never heard from the attorney firm again and released the scrupulous vendor from all obligations terminating services.  Following these incidents, I began to put together a management program to address other areas that had risks associated with them. Once published, everyone understood the processes and procedures such that I could monitor and manage accountability as well as reduce conflicts and resolve issues more quickly. 

Project leadership in a large scale project such as this humanitarian model requires overarching efforts to organize the elemental projects, establishing the processes and procedures that are unique to mega-projects, as well as setting goals and objectives are part of the effort.  A greater challenge is to foresee the projects

Implementation

Mega-Project implementation is more complex than a simple or small project. Mega-projects are typically composed of numerous projects varying in complexity and scope. Management programs layer over top and across the entire project. Procurement and supply chains can become complex and wrought with legal challenges as vendors, suppliers, and contractors make claims, challenge contract awards, and demand payments under review for quality and performance issues.

References

Coffman, M Ph.D. (2010).  Rescuing a broken America: why America is deeply divided. (1st ED).  Morgan James Publishing: NY.

Diamond, J. (2005). Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed. (1st ED). Viking Adult, United States.

Li, Z., Yanfei, X., & Chaosheng, C. (2009). Understanding the value of project management from a stakeholder's perspective: Case study of mega-project management. Project Management Journal, 40(1), 99-109. DOI:10.1002/pmj.20099